DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/30 11:36
Crickets Midday for the Livestock Complex
The cash cattle market has yet to see a bid renewed and it's looking like
this week's trade is essentially done with.
DTN Livestock Analyst
The livestock complex is trading about as excitingly as it would on a day
before a long three-day weekend. Traders are mostly absent from the market and
packers haven't even bothered to renew one single bid in the cash cattle
market. At this point, it's looking like Friday's trade won't amount to much
other than a weaker close throughout the futures complex. December corn is down
8 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.00. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is down 129.30 points and NASDAQ is down 92.36 points.
The live cattle complex isn't having a grand-slam day by any measure, as
packers continue to see the benefit in higher boxes, but consumers are still
enduring high beef prices. August live cattle are down $0.32 at $122.17,
October live cattle are down $0.80 at $127.35 and December live cattle are down
$0.55 at $132.75. The countryside hasn't seen a bit of interest develop
following the trade that transpired Thursday afternoon. The market still has
plenty of cattle to trade but it seems as though packers have secured their
immediate needs and are already checked out of the market and enjoying a long
weekend. So far, this past week live cattle have traded anywhere from $116 to
$123.50, but mostly at $120, which is $1.00 stronger than last week. Northern
dressed cattle have traded from $195 to $201, mostly at $196, which is steady
with last week's trade. There could be some trade that develops Friday
afternoon but it's most likely that this week's cash cattle trade is done with.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.60 ($278.82) and select up $1.59
($258.41) with a movement of 64 loads (28.68 loads of choice, 16.57 loads of
select, 12.95 loads of trim and 5.59 loads of ground beef).
One would naturally be inclined to thinking that because corn is trading
$0.06 to $0.07 lower in its nearby contracts, the feeder cattle market would be
having a heyday. But without an active presence from traders, the market has
been left high and dry to drift lower into the weekend. August feeders are down
$0.35 at $158.15, September feeders are down $0.35 at $161.60 and October
feeders are down $0.25 at $163.95.
Just like the cattle contracts, the lean hog market has been left to trail
lower into the weekend. August lean hogs are down $0.30 at $106.00, October
lean hogs are down $1.52 at $87.45 and December lean hogs are down $1.32 at
$81.07. With Thursday's afternoon pork cutout values closing more than $1.00
lower, it will be interesting to see how Friday's cutout closes as demand is
still alive and well in the market, but supplies are being more readily
available. Even though it seems like an oxymoron, lower pork cutout prices
could mean a weaker futures market, but they could also mean stronger exports
as U.S. pork prices are still high compared to other nations.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for July 29 is up $0.06 at $112.08 and the
actual index for July 28 is up $0.08 at $112.02. Because hog prices weren't
available Thursday, due to confidentiality, there is no comparison to be made
Friday morning in regard to day-over-day price trends. We do, however, know
that there have been 2,360 head sell with a weighted average of $101.65,
ranging from $100.00 to $105.00, and a five-day rolling average of $103.51.
Pork cutouts total 144.34 loads with 132.58 loads of pork cuts and 11.77 loads
of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.10, $124.97.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at email@example.com
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